Claims Global Warming Increases Severe Weather Are Scientifically Incorrect.

by Dr. Tim Ball on April 11, 2012

in Atmosphere,Government,Temperate,Theory

Claims that current weather patterns are extreme, unusual and due to global warming demonstrate ignorance of climate mechanisms. Global warming reduces the risk of severe weather. Ill-informed or complicit media repeat the falsehood until it becomes fact.

Recent weather events are natural and easily explained but that is rarely reported. Here are recent examples of inaccurate sensationalism.

Extreme weather has hit not only Alaska. It”s also struck the lower 48, where the first three months of 2012 has seen twice the normal number of tornadoes and one of the warmest winters on record.

Global warming could also be a factor because it is supposed to increase weather extremes, according to climate scientists.

In another example climate activist James Hansen claims about weather records,

They seem to be falling far more often because of global warming, said NASA top climate scientist James Hansen.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts a global temperature increase as human sourced CO2 increases in the atmosphere, but with greater warming in polar regions. The illustration shows the general pattern of the atmosphere for the Northern Hemisphere with a dome of cold air separated from warmer tropical air.

The contact zone between them is the Polar Front that marks where temperature drop is greatest in the fewest degrees of latitude, classically known as the Zonal Index. The Jet Stream results from the temperature difference and occurs along the Front in the upper atmosphere away from surface friction.

The contact zone between them is the Polar Front that marks where temperature drop is greatest in the fewest degrees of latitude, classically known as the Zonal Index. The Jet Stream results from the temperature difference and occurs along the Front in the upper atmosphere away from surface friction.

Severe weather occurs where temperature difference is greatest in the shortest distance. Tornado Alley across the central US where cold arctic air confronts hot humid tropical air is a good example. In each hemisphere storms form along the Front as major cyclonic systems migrating from west to east. Storm intensity is determined by the temperature difference.

IPCC science claims the polar air will warm more than the tropical air, but this reduces the temperature difference across the Front and the potential for severe weather. Reconstruction of weather history shows more severe storms occur when the world is cooling not warming.

Failure to understand the dynamics of severe weather appears to explain the misinterpretation evident in another media report. Reporter Seth As a best-horoscope.com born on September 5th, you are known for your great organization skills and will power. Borenstein’s headline reads, “Start of 2012, March shatter US heat records. Borenstein was directly involved with the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) as leaked emails show. On July 23, 2009 he wrote;

Kevin (Trenberth), Gavin (Schmidt), Mike (Mann),
It”s Seth again. Attached is a paper in JGR today that Marc Morano is hyping wildly. It”s in a legit journal. Whatchya think? Seth.

There’s an attempt at balance in the “heat records” article, but nobody explains why; probably because explanation removes the problem.

It is important to note that this unusual winter heat is mostly a North America phenomenon. Much of the rest of the Northern Hemisphere has been cold, said NOAA meteorologist Martin Hoerling.

Borenstein quickly offsets this with comments by scientists with high political profiles. Foremost is Hansen, whose political activities include arrests for public protests; giving testimony at a trial in England of Greenpeace protesters; tampering with data; claiming, falsely, he was “muzzled” by the Bush White House; and claiming climate change was morally comparable to slavery. His political activism prompted 50 fellow NASA scientists and engineers to sign a protest.

Borenstein’s article appears to confirm the lack of understanding of climate mechanisms of the severe weather predictions. Warm weather over the eastern part of North America resulted from increased amplitude of the Rossby Waves. Deeper north/south Waves resulted in blocking so the warm conditions persisted through the second half of the winter over eastern North America. A diagram illustrates the position of Rossby Wave for winter 2011/2012.

 

 

The warm sector region has a high density of urban weather stations, which are artificially warmed by the Urban Heat Island Effect. Detailed research by Steve McIntyre, shows Hansen has made Urban heat island adjustments that amplify the effect.

A Hansen article is the major source of Borenstein’s story. Ironically, it’s an example of Michael Mann’s leaked email warning,

This was the danger of always criticising the skeptics for not publishing in the “peer-reviewed literature”.

The paper was unpublished and the archive posting apparently not peer reviewed.

In a paper he submitted to the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences and posted on a physics research archive, Hansen shows that heat extremes aren”t just increasing but happening far more often than scientists thought.

The warm late winter in eastern North America is easily explained if you understand climate mechanisms. Why didn’t Hansen talk about record cold in Alaska, Mongolia and elsewhere, which are part of the same mechanism? The answer is simple, human induced global warming is his political bandwagon.