Current Global Weather Patterns Normal Despite Government and Media Distortions

by Dr. Tim Ball on June 28, 2012

in Antarctic,Arctic,History,Political,Theory

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) science and its promotion involves selection of only material that supports the hypothesis that human CO2 is causing warming and latterly climate change. It is used in everything from tree ring samples chosen to create the hockey stick, to omission of the Milankovitch Effect, and the role of cosmic rays in the formation of low cloud from IPCC computer models.

There’s a similar pattern of selective reporting about weather events. People are inundated with reports giving the impression that what is happening is worse then ever before, unusual and therefore due to human activities. When weather and climate became a political issue through the IPCC claims of impending doom it became a focus for media. They all exaggerated everything to make it newsworthy, or presented only one side of what was going on because of political bias. So far in 2012 stories about warm weather and storms dominate the news, but that is only half the story.

The dome of cold air over polar regions is expanding as the world has cooled since 1998. Rossby Waves in the Circumpolar Vortex that circles from west to east in the middle latitudes switched from Zonal to Meridional flow creating different weather patterns in the middle and high latitudes.

Rossby Waves migrate from west to east on a 4 to 6 week basis. However, when the Meridional Wave amplitude gets deep, with cold air pushing toward the Equator and warm air toward the Poles the system blocks. Now the weather pattern migration becomes 8 to 10 weeks and people become nervous. That is what is happening in North America now, but all we hear about is the warm weather across the eastern half of the continent, with little mention of the cold and wet conditions in the west.

Arctic ice conditions were affected by the pattern

“Arctic sea ice waxes and wanes throughout the year, and conditions fluctuate each season and year—including conditions in the Bering Sea. Although sea ice extent in mid-January 2012 was not at a record high, it was the highest ice extent in several years, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center.”

A plot of Bering Sea ice in March shows the pattern and the record level in 2012. As one media outlet reported,

“The amount of floating ice in the Arctic’s Bering Sea – which had long been expected to retreat disastrously by climate-Cassandra organisations such as Greenpeace – reached all-time record high levels last month, according to US researchers monitoring the area using satellites.”

The official explanation identified the Meridional wind pattern.

“As winds from the north pushed Arctic ice southward through the Bering Strait, the ice locked together and formed a structurally continuous band known as an ice arch, which acts a bit like a keystone arch in a building.”

This pattern of ice related to wind patterns that are a function of storm activity was identified in a 2011 Journal of Geophysical Research article.

“The perennial (September) Arctic sea ice cover exhibits large interannual variability, with changes of over a million square kilometers from one year to the next. Here we explore the role of changes in Arctic cyclone activity, and related factors, in driving these pronounced year-to-year changes in perennial sea ice cover.”

The cyclonic activity is directly related to the larger pattern of flow in the Circumpolar Vortex.
The same pattern was occurring at the South Pole.

“It’s no secret that the South Pole in Antarctica is one of the coldest places on Earth. But this year it got really cold faster than ever, breaking a 30-year-old record for the earliest the temperature has dropped below minus 100 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 73.3 degrees Celsius).”

“The record comes less than four months after an altogether different mark was set at the South Pole during the austral summer. On Christmas Day, the temperature officially hit 9.9F (minus 12.3C) at about 3:50 p.m., to become the warmest day ever at the South Pole.”

“Just last September, another significant record fell when the peak wind speed was clocked at 58 miles per hour (mph), or 50 knots — the strongest ever at the South Pole.”

The word “ever” is wrong, but certainly they are the strongest in the record begun in 1958.
These patterns are spilling out to lower latitudes. A June 22, 2012 email from Eduardo Ferreyra President of Argentinian Foundation for a Scientific Ecology (FAEC) reports;

“We’re having in Argentina a series of Antarctic polar waves that has people shuddering. In Ushuaia an entire neighbourhood had to be evacuated because the cold froze water pipes and blocked natural gas valves. No heating, no cooking, streets with 2.5 metres of snow. In two weeks snowed more than an entire normal winter season. And winter hasn’t begun yet!”

Low pressure or Cyclonic weather systems track along the Polar Front that separates polar and tropical air and is coincident with Rossby Waves. Intensity of the system is determined by the temperature contrast across the Front so that is the location of most severe weather and heavy precipitation. With Meridional Flow and cold air pushing well south the contrast is greater, storms more intense and precipitation heavier. Because the system is stalled wind damage and rainfall levels are higher. They also orient north /south rather than west/east.

An objective of the global warming/climate change hysteria is to suggest what is happening is abnormal. This is achieved by cherry-picking events and patterns that support that claim. When the entire pattern is included and the mechanism explained, people can see that what is happening is normal and similar to similar periods in history.