A Basic and Powerful Analysis of Greenhouse Effect Fallacies

by Dr. Tim Ball on July 15, 2013

in Atmosphere,Data,Solar,Statistics,Theory

I don‘t normally reprint material by other people, however, I know the following information is not available to the general public. It is reproduced with permission of author Norm Kalmanovitch. He is a retired geophysicist who has worked on the climate issue through his involvement with the Friends of Science group over the last few years. Norm has published on their web site and readers might find his other material interesting.

Norm is very good at looking at the issues around global warming from a very basic perspective, using his training and experience. This article illustrates that point. He approved reproduction with the proviso that I include the science portion and urge people to calculate the “greenhouse effect” for themselves.

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What is the Greenhouse Effect and How is it Determined?

The “greenhouse effect” is simply the temperature difference between the actual surface temperature and theoretical value of what the temperature would be without the insulation effect from the atmosphere. The greenhouse effect can easily be calculated from geophysical data that has been provided by weather satellites since their launch in late 1978.

“Climate change” is entirely based on the assumption that the rapid increase in global CO2 emissions is enhancing the greenhouse effect resulting in catastrophic global warming; but somehow no one ever bothered to verify this conjecture by actually calculating the greenhouse effect!

The 1980 value for the greenhouse effect is 35.56°C and the value for 2010 is 0.14°C lower at 35.42°C. This demonstrates that the 70.9% increase in global CO2 emissions since 1980 did not in any way enhance the greenhouse effect as has been falsely claimed since 1988 when this global warming debacle first began.

Since 1980 there has only been 0.4°C of global temperature increase, all of which occurred prior to 1997 when global warming officially ended.

The global temperature standstill reverted to a global cooling trend in 2002 and the Earth has been cooling ever since, in spite of the continued increase in global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels.

A similar occurrence of decreasing global temperatures with rapidly increasing CO2 emissions took place during the 33 years from 1942 to 1975 (the 70’s global cooling scare) so the stated correlation of increased CO2 emissions with global warming never actually existed.
In short, since 1997 there has been neither any global warming nor any enhancement of the greenhouse effect to cause it in the first place, and with no possible correlation between increased CO2 emissions and global warming; there is simply no scientific basis for the for the ludicrous concept that fossil fuel derived CO2 emissions are or could even cause catastrophic global warming!

IPCC climate change dogma is complete bunk, and anyone like President Obama who is still advocating the reduction of CO2 emissions to combat ‘climate change’ is doing so out of sheer ignorance!

The Science

This proper scientific definition of the greenhouse effect was known to Hansen who stated it as “Ts – Te is the greenhouse effect of gases and clouds” and defined Te according to the formula Te = [So(1-A)/4σ]1/4

(Hansen, J., D. Johnson, A. Lacis, S. Lebedeff, P. Lee, D. Rind, and G. Russell, 1981: Science, 213, 957-966, doi:10.1126/science.213.4511.957.)

So is total solar irradiance (TSI) and we have continuous measurement of TSI from weather satellites since late 1978 as shown on this graph from the World Radiation Centre in Davos.

This graph shows TSI to be 1366.6W/m2 in 1980 and 1365.8W/m2 in 2010.

 

A” is albedo which is the percentage of energy from the sun reflected back into space by the atmosphere and the Earth’s surface.

Albedo can be determined by subtracting outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) from TSI. This graph of OLR (from www.climate4you.com ) compiled from data available from NOAA at shows OLR to have increased from 231W/m2 in 1980 to 233W/m2 in 2010.

Subtracting OLR from TSI/4 (division of TSI by 4 necessary for units to match) gives reflected energy values of:

1980 the reflected energy was 341.65W/m2 – 231W/m2 = 110.65W/m2

2010 the reflected energy was 341.45W/m2 – 233W/m2 = 108.45W/m2

And albedo values of:

A = 110.65/341.65 = 0.323869 for 1980

A = 108.45/341.45 = 0.317616 for 2010

From these values and using the formula Te = [So(1-A)/4σ]1/4 we can calculate Te to be:

1980 Te = [1366.6(1-0.323869)/4σ]1/4 = 252.64 K

2010 Te = [1365.8(1-0.317616)/4σ]1/4 = 253.18 K

This graph of Global Temperature Anomaly from NCDC shows the global temperature anomaly to be 0.20°C in 1980 and 0.60°C in 2010. (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cmb-faq/anomalies.php )

For simplicity if we equate 288 K to the zero reference on this NCDC temperature anomaly data, we get absolute temperature values for Ts of 288.2 K for 1980 and 288.6 K for 2010.

From here it is just a simple subtraction of Ts – Te to determine the greenhouse effect:

1980 Ts = 288.2 K Te = 252.64 K

2010 Ts = 288.6 K Te = 253.18 K

1980 greenhouse effect = 288.2-252.64=35.56°C

2010 greenhouse effect = 288.6-253.18=35.42°C